An excellent video presentation.

The message is clear, even if we stop emissions now, more climate change and higher temperatures are already baked into the cake for later this century.

If we continue with business as usual, the situation will become catastrophic.

The “good” news is that we cannot continue business as usual. Global oil production is about to enter decline within the next 3 years according to a growing number of specialists including, for example, the UK Industry Task Force on Peak Oil and Energy Security (Virgin, Scottish and Southern Energy, Solar Century, Arup, Stagecoach etc). Car manufacturers know this and that is why electric cars are appearing on the market.

Those that study fossil fuel decline point out that the IPCC emission scenarios (SRES) are totally unrealistic. They are far too high. There is hardly enough economically available oil, coal and natural gas to hit even the lowest range scenario from the IPCC at the end of the century. I would recommend reading “Peeking at Peak Oil” by Kjell Aleklett for a detailed analysis of our likely fossil fuel future.

Personally, after 6 years of reading about the subject, I am convinced by the fossil fuel depletionist’s position. I am also convinced that climate change is happening. However, I believe that our most imminent threat is the present energy crisis (higher oil and gas prices) precipitating a further financial collapse and major decline in industrial capacity.

To combat climate change on an individual level, you might consider using efficient infra red heating (Redwell or Infranomics heating panels) especially if your part of the world has a high or growing mix of renewables in the electricity supply mix and even more so if you are using oil for heating at present. For water heating, consider something like the Sanden EcoAqua air source heat pump with a seasonal CoP of around 3. Encourage local living especially local food production.

I would add that were we are heading has been known for at least 40 years. The 1972 book “Limits to Growth” modelled likely projections for the world economy, population, pollution, industrial output etc. Their projections were reviewed in 2008 and found to be accurate. See

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/Looking-Back-on-the-Limits-of-Growth.html

How many economic projections have been accurate over 30 years? I would recommend looking at the graphic in the link above – as if what was predicted in 1972 continues to be valid, we are in for a bumpy ride in the very near future.

Yes, climate change is simple. But the correlation between human activity and climate change is not proven-I remember the eruption of Pinatubo vulcano in the 80’s. It released more carbon in the air, than all humanity in its existance.
So, I am conservative regarding polution-sulphur is poison, NO is poison, small hard articles from diesel engines are harmful. This is what we should get rid off.

The other reason for me, to buy electric, is that oil brings devastation to people. People are dying because of oil-driven wars, there are tensions between cultures and religions and this is also pollution-of human mind.
So whenever I skip visiting the gas station, I contribute something to world peace. I use electric bycycle and scooter in the summer and LPG car in winters.
Let’s get oil off the position of No.1 business in the world.

Great link, thanks. I was searching for a study like that.
So I send a link I monitor.
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=ten00096&plugin=1
European consuption of petroleum. I think data for 2011 will be gathered by the end of November. Consuption has come down from 500000 to 450000 tons. Hopefully not just because of economic crisis.

Hi Trevor,

Indeed, there are enormous amounts of hydrocarbons in the ground. How much more will be consumed is the critical issue. Unconventional natural gas production in the USA is a bubble that is about to burst. See

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2012-10-22/gas-bubble-leaking-about-to-burst

for top quality comment on this. Business as usual will not be achieved by using fuels that are unconventional. What is needed for business as usual is cheap and abundant oil more than anything else.

Perhaps the best measure of the quality of an energy source is the concept of “Energy Returned on Energy Invested”. Historically, conventional oil had an ERoEI of 100:1. Nowadays, that’s more like 20:1, but only 10:1 for offshore oil. For conventional natural gas, the ERoEI figure is 15:1. For wind, about 20:1. For nuclear about 10:1.

Shale oil and shale gas have ERoEI figures in the region of 5:1. Biofuels about 1.5:1. When you get to oil shales, it’s about 1.2:1.

In order to maintain a complex society, it is estimated that you need an ERoEI of at least 10:1 i.e. more than unconventional sources of oil and gas can provide.

Best wishes,

Alister.